Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Christian World Life View is Essential to All

I am daily becoming more concerned about the fact that so few professing Christians lack the Biblical knowledge and courage to stand firmly upon the word of God. Very often, we fail to stand firm for the Lord Jesus Christ. Among many who speak out strongly for Him is Chuck Baldwin. Here is his latest message.

Few Christians Have Biblical Worldview
By Chuck Baldwin

This is a profound article and should be read by all. You can view it HERE.

I urge you to read and heed it. We must be, not simply hearers of the word, but doers. Else, we should wonder if we are truly of the Family of God.

Silver is at 12.82 on a down tick. Thus, HL is bouncing around 1.99 - 2.00 offering some to get on board or increase their holdings. I bought a fair amount yesterday.

Gold is fighting to hold onto slim gains at 917.80 on an up tick. So, VGZ is holding well at about 2.08. It has been as high as 2.10 today.

From Casey's Daily Resource Plus: "Silver's chart was similar. The precise bottom for the silver price was the London silver fix which occurred at noon London time...7:00 a.m. in New York. You could have set your watch by this one. Silver rose strongly from there until shortly before London closed for the day...and, like gold, it was lights out after that. Even Richard Russell was in full cry about it...yelling 'central bank interference'. [Note to Richard: It's JPMorgan Chase and HSBC USA...both are bullion banks. - Ed]"

The graphs don't lie, the bankers do. It is so obvious that we have no free market, rather its is manipulated markets. Thus, the investors are always behind the eight ball, because the markets do not act normally. This is a challenging time and one must follow the market and be aware of the major trends thereof. Regardless of the manipulation, the market will balance the books. God is in control and His will intervene in His good time which does not always to be our time. We are impatient. Realize that His timing is always best and for the eventual good of His people.

From Bloomberg:

China, Argentina Reach Agreement on Currency Swap

By Bill Faries and Joshua Goodman

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The central banks of China and Argentina reached an agreement for a three-year, 70 billion yuan ($10 billion) currency swap, Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters in Medellin, Colombia, today.

It’s the first such accord between the world’s third- biggest economy and a Latin American nation. The move follows swap accords between China and Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Belarus. Read it HERE.

While many feel that the dollar will always remain the international reserve currency, there is a growing consensus among the nations that this should not be. This movement is gathering steam which is surprising many. This article is just one among many which exhibit the fact that the world is dissatisfied with the way we have debased the dollar. We are taking many steps to decrease the value of the dollar. Our command is, "Forget the dollar, let's go all out to restore prosperity." I do not believe it will work.

From The Washington Post:

Welcome to America, the World's Scariest Emerging Market

By Desmond Lachman
Sunday, March 29, 2009

Back in the spring of 1998, when Boris Yeltsin was still at Russia's helm, I led a group of global investors to Moscow to find out firsthand where the Russian economy was headed. My long career with the International Monetary Fund and on Wall Street had taken me to "emerging markets" throughout Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America, and I thought I'd seen it all. Yet I still recall the shock I felt at a meeting in Russia's dingy Ministry of Finance, where I finally realized how a handful of young oligarchs were bringing Russia's economy to ruin in the pursuit of their own selfish interests, despite the supposed brilliance of Anatoly Chubais, Russia's economic czar at the time. Read the article HERE.

Lachman goes on to compare the action of the U.S. now to that of the USSR. You do remember the USSR, don't you. It collapsed in financial ruin a few decades ago. Will that happen here? It could, but perhaps, the Lord will spare us if we repent and change our ways back in accordance with His law. However, I seriously doubt that our fearless leaders will ever call for national repentance and restore the blessing showered upon us by the Sovereign God in and since our founding. We are likely to face much rougher times as the Lord continues to discipline us.

From The Telegraph UK:

Russia backs return to Gold Standard to solve financial crisis

Russia has become the first major country to call for a partial restoration of the Gold Standard to uphold discipline in the world financial system.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:33AM BST 31 Mar 2009 Read the article and view the video HERE.

I have long said that the first nation that returns to a gold standard will have the most valuable currency in the world. Either Russia or China could do this. Perhaps, both will join together to bring this about. Think of what that would do to the dollar.

From Ted Butler's Weekly Commentary:

TED BUTLER COMMENTARY

March 30, 2009

The Sting

(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)

Stunning new evidence of manipulation in silver and gold has just been published by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department. The OCC, first established in 1863, charters, regulates and supervises all national banks. Their new data proves the manipulation in unambiguous terms. The report also confirms how the U.S. Government, in partnership with JPMorgan Chase, intentionally cheated silver investors worldwide of many billions of dollars during the fourth quarter of 2008, and longer. This was all outside the futures market I normally write about. It was a scam of historic proportions. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb:

GLD CONTINUES POSITIVE TREND

Top gold ETF remains at record levels

Holdings by the world's top gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, remain at record levels as economy continues to falter.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 31 Mar 2009

LONDON -

While the gold price itself has seemed to be range bound and stuttering in the $910-$950 area over the past few weeks, ETF holdings still remain at record levels, although growth has not been as strong as earlier this year and late last. This does demonstrate however that investor interest in gold as a protection against falling asset prices elsewhere remains very positive. As long as the ETF holdings remain strong, the downside risk in gold probably remains limited. Read it HERE.

I could be wrong, but I prefer the CEF which holds both gold and silver. Of course, it is likely better to hold the metal firmly in our hands. The ETFs do provide us an alternative without the security problem and with greater ease of trading if we desire to do it.

On the cause of environmental changes from MineWeb:

FLAWED SCIENCE?

Humans causing climate change - fact or fiction?

Emissions trading schemes and carbon trading are putting a heavy burden on energy costs as governments try to force reductions in carbon emissions - but are they justified? There are doubters out there.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 30 Mar 2009

LONDON -

While it seems that the "politics" of climate change may be settled, there is still much scientific debate over whether climate change is in fact caused by human activities, with the weight of scientific evidence tending to "unfrock" the climate "alarmists". Read it HERE.

Personally, I believe the politics of this trend are more for control of citizens than improving the environment. It is similar to our political water shortages while we sit on one of the largest aquifers in the world. No one knows the amount of water below us, but every time there is a lack of rain, the politicians start beating the drums about saving water. It has been estimated by many that were it not to rain for 50 years, we would still have an abundance of water. The politicians do not agree. Why? I believe they enjoy the power over the people.

The market remains interesting, challenging, and involves risk. If/when you buy, buy incrementally in smaller quantities. Be quick to sell general stocks on any upward move during this bear market and carefully, cautiously on any purchases. My trading stocks are giving a good performance for the time being. When the gold rush gathers steam, they should do very well.

Best to each, Doug







Monday, March 30, 2009

Potential Protection for God-given Family Rights -Metals Down

Gold lower after being hit abruptly in London trading. However, it appears to be moving up some at present. It is now 916.10 on a down tick. Silver is 13.08 on a down tick. The DOW is down over 200 points at the opening. The miners have been hit, too. Both HL and VGZ are just over $2. We may well be able to buy below $2 today. I have orders in for both at 1.85 and 1.75. Will likely buy at anything below $2. The market has just opened.


From MondayMorning today:


Hargett" align="left" border="1" width="60" height="75"> Opening View: GM Faces 'Quick and Surgical' Bankruptcy; U.S. Stocks Plummet
By Joseph Hargett


Obama administration ousts GM leader; U.S. stock futures reeling
U.S. stock futures are trading far below fair value this morning, indicative of a large opening drop for the regular session. The backfire from General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler's viability plans was heard around the globe this weekend, when the Obama administration requested and received the resignation of Rick Wagoner, GM's chief executive officer. Speaking over the weekend, Obama said that the best chance of survival for the duo may require "utilizing the bankruptcy code in a quick and surgical way." In other news, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is selling 51% of its payment processing unit, and MGM Mirage made a payment to continue construction of its CityCenter development in Las Vegas.

This may well be setting the course for the opening which can well continue into the day. The market opens in about 15 minutes, but this looks to be a down day. However, it may change. Governmental meddling will always muddle every thing it touches in an otherwise free market.

For a change - An attempt to protect the family from WorldNetDaily:

WorldNetDaily.com" border="0" width="252" height="42"> A Free Press For A Free People
Who will raise kids: Mom, Dad or state?

Though efforts to pass a constitutional amendment protecting parental rights have failed in the past, two U.S. legislators are preparing to reintroduce the idea this week; and this time, they say, the effort is backed by more than 60 congressional members.

"At a time when government at every level seems to encroach upon the ability of parents to choose the best for their children," Hoekstra writes on his website, "it is important to preserve parental rights into the Constitution." Read it HERE.

It is a shame that in America which was founded on Christian principles, the government has turned its back on the God who so abundantly blessed us and seeks to become the "parent" for children in so many ways. It is sad testimony that we need such an amendment to our Constitution to protect God-given parental authority.

Predictions for short term lower gold prices from MineWeb:

$750 to $1,000/OZ TRADING RANGE

RBC predicts ‘significant volatility' in gold prices

In a recent analysis, RBC Capital Markets warns gold price risks are increased, and "we could see significant corrections" by mid-year.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 30 Mar 2009

RENO, NV -

RBC Capital Markets forecasts the gold price will continue to be volatile "offering an attractive buying opportunity for gold stocks on pullbacks into periods of weak demand in Q2/09 and early Q3/09."

Meanwhile RBC is maintaining its average gold price forecasts of $850/oz for this year, $875/oz for 2010, and $900/oz long-term. Key catalysts for gold are expected to be seasonal demand trends; speculative and investment flows; emerging market flows and scrap gold sales; and U.S. dollar impact.

"As noted above, we expect significant volatility in the gold price, and we could see a trading range from $750/oz to $1,000/oz in 2009,' RBC analysts said.

"Gold equities are also expected to be volatile, as they trend to trade off the spot price and not a projected average for a forecast period," they suggest, adding that they believe the global Tier I and Tier II gold equities are pricing in a long-term gold price assumption of a range of $800/oz to $850/oz. Read it HERE.

More from MineWeb:

CAN'T CREATE PROSPERITY BY PRINTING MONEY

Gold stocks best investment as hard times will last longer and go deeper - Jay Taylor

Jay Taylor* says that gold stocks represent the best investment these days and also argues against the folly of thinking we can cure what ails us by running the printing presses faster and faster to pump more and more paper currency into the economy. Interview with The Gold Report.

Author: The Gold Report
Posted: Sunday , 29 Mar 2009

VANCOUVER, BC -

The Gold Report: What's the premise behind your new radio program, Turning Hard Times into Good Times?

Jay Taylor: The notion is in order to fix a problem, you have to understand it. You have to understand its origins and its pathology. In my view, the difficulties we're having in the U.S. economy and the global economy have been diagnosed incorrectly. Our problem is really due to a monetary system that in essence has no foundation. It's a fiat monetary system unlike the commodity-based monetary systems of the past that put some limit on the amount of credit or debt, if you will, that could be issued. Read the Interview HERE.

It looks to be another exciting day in the market place. Be ready to act after reviewing the opportunities and your own portfolio.

Remember that God is in control, but we are responsible for acting in accordance with His law. This is fact and does not depend upon our beliefs. Our beliefs cannot change fact.

Best to each, Doug








Sunday, March 29, 2009

Possible Buying Opportunity Tomorrow - March is Soon Over

Gold may be heading lower over night. It will be interesting to see if it stays that way for long enough for us to add to our trading stock. Gold is 923.30 up 0.20 and silver 13.32 off 0.02. The mining stocks have somewhat decoupled with the precious metals as we saw last week.

I am looking to add to both HL and VGZ, but would like to do so under 2.00. I have a buy order for both @ 1.75, but would be a buyer at 1.80, and possibly at 2.00 if they remain fairly strong.

We should have a buying opportunity soon, likely this week.

We make "educated " guesses, but God control everything and know His plan before He fully reveals it to us. We can only plan using the best information we have, but we must study Scripture to learn about God and His law.

If you missed corporate worship today, you have given God a lower priority than He deserves for the many ways He blesses us.

Best to each, Doug

Friday, March 27, 2009

No More Free Markets - UK & US Following Same Path

I was indisposed this morning getting the Durango checked out before expiration of the Warranty Policy. Nothing much wrong, but it took almost four hours for the thorough check out. Will have to have the ball joints repaired, but that is covered, so I am pleased.

The Lord has really blessed our nation, but we, as a nation, have turned our backs on God and His law. We were once a nation under law which was written while the predominate influence among the colonies came from the Bible. Thus, the Bible and God's law was the major influence in the law foundation of America. However, I heard some of the remarks of President Obama at the installation of the new Attorney General of these United States.

Here are two direct quotes: "Translate laws into justice." and "Laws reflect the reality of every day life." The implication was that laws must be changed to fit man's view of justice and man's reflection of reality. Thus, we are to be no longer bound by the decrees of the Creator God.

Man is to become the god defining what is good and evil. I think I recall that this was the cause of the original sin of Adam and Eve, as they desired to be as God when Satan deceived Eve and Adam willingly joined in. No wonder that God is displeased with America. He knows that this is the trend in our nation. By the way, Obama is not our first president to ignore the validity of God's law. He is simply continuing the precidence that was established at least a century ago.

Where are the Christians who should be shouting from the roof tops against this sacralege. It is an abomination to God. We need Christian MEN who will stand for God and call out to governmental officials. "Thus, sayeth the Lord." Let us join together in doing this in spite of the boos and hisses which will rise from the general public. Let us again be the light of the world and salt of the earth.

Gold has been "gently" pushed downward. It is currently at 920 off 14.20 and silver is 13.26 off 0.26. They are tracing the same pattern on the charts.
GLD ( proxy for gold) has broken through the 50 day moving average. This is not a good sign, but the trend remains very bullish, particularly, in view of the poor economy and the weakness of the dollar and other paper currencies. By the way, the Norwegean Krone seems to be one of the strongest currencies at present.
Notice that the miners are well above the 50 day moving average. They are holding well and making a better showing than the precious metals at this time. We may be later in the bull market for precious metals than most realize. This break between the metals and the mining stocks generally comes to fruition in the latter phases of the precious metals bull market. Our trading stocks are holding well, as we can see >>> DROOY 8.43; HL 2.08; HMY 11.23, and VGZ 2.14. I was stopped out on some shares of HL and VGZ, and have Good Til Canceled buy orders in for both at 1.75 just in case they drop that low. I will be a buyer of both at 1.80, and would like to add to DROOY at near 8. Perhaps, this is wishful thinking, but I want to buy if we get in that range before long.

Move on the failed sale of UK Treasuries compared to US from The Daily Pfennig:

"
Both the UK and US have been flooding their economies with liquidity, by purchasing their own debt. These moves are inflationary, and while we haven't seen signs of any uptick in US CPI, the UK inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3.2% in February. An ominous sign for the US economy. And by purchasing their own debt and forcing down interest rates below what the market is demanding, the UK and US governments are pushing foreign investors away from the debt sales. This is one reason the failure of the Gilt auction which I wrote about yesterday is of so much concern to the US. We rely on foreign investment in order to finance our deficits, but at the same time we are trying to force interest rates at which these bonds are being sold to below what the market is demanding. This can't continue, and results in failed bond auctions. The solution? The currencies of the US and UK will decline and interest rates will move back up in order to lure back foreign investors. This is inevitable, as the only way we can continue to run deficits while keeping interest rates low is to inflate our economies, which decreases the value of our currency."

Folks, This is the real threat to our economy. If we cannot get "them" to buy "our" debt, we are bankrupt. Of course, this could be a blessing IF the Federal Government does not blame us for the debacle and tax us out of existence. Ominously, there is a growing fear among them about continuing to hold U.S. dollars. How do you feel about holding them as the sentiment toward them dwindles? That is scary.

From Financial Times:

Swiss banks ban top executive travel

By Richard Milne in Geneva

Published: March 26 2009 19:08 | Last updated: March 26 2009 19:08

Switzerland’s private banks have started to ban their top executives from travelling abroad, even to neighbouring France and Germany, because of fears they will be detained as part of a global crackdown on bank secrecy.

The head of one leading private bank in Geneva said the growing determination of countries such as the US and Germany to tackle tax evasion and secrecy meant banks felt they had to take extra measures to protect employees. “Some banks have taken this precaution,” he said. “If today I go to Germany to visit two banks I deal with...German customs can take me in and question me.”

Read the article HERE.

We are on the attack to undermine bank secrecy. Isn't that a great way for a "free" nation to honor its job of protecting the life, liberty, and property of its people. Would that we would return to a Godly free society. Fat chance of that in these days without a miraculous intervention by God, Himself.

Here is an attack upon Britain's Prime Minister in Parliament by Daniel Hannan: View it HERE.

This really lays it on the line. It is a sound attack based upon sound economics. We need the same here and much earlier to the second Bush. We should clap loudly and raise our voices with a great Amen!

Frank Partnoy on derivatives over Public Broadcasting:

Frank Partnoy: Derivative Dangers

Years before the current economic crisis, law professor and former Wall Street trader Frank Partnoy was warning about the dangers of risky financial practices.

In his 1997 book FIASCO: Blood in the Water on Wall Street, Partnoy detailed how derivatives — financial instruments whose value is determined by another security — were being used and abused by big financial firms. Partnoy used his experiences as a derivatives trader at Morgan Stanley to give the book an insider's perspective. In the preface to FIASCO, Partnoy wrote about the growing influence of derivatives: You can read the article and watch the 39+ video HERE.

This is a good introduction to derivatives and the fiasco their abuse brought to us.

From Casey's Daily Resource Plus on the strange activity of the market:

"Talking about the Dow's Wednesday 'last-hour rescue rally at 3:00 p.m.'...how about the Dow's Thursday 'last-hour rescue rally' at precisely the same time!!! As for gold and silver...with options expiry out of the way...who the hell knows. Something seems to be afoot...but with the U.S. government up to its neck in market management these days...it's anyone's guess. And...if I said for sure one way or another...then I'd be guessing too."

It is no wonder that Richard Russell and virtually all analyst of the markets are having great challenges in defining explicitly the direction of the financial markets. These, as well as almost all markets are far from being free. We are living in a controlled market economy these days, and it seems destined to get much worse.

A free market and limited government would solve most of our problems. These are both guide lines for sound government laid down for us by God.

Best to each, Doug


Thursday, March 26, 2009

UK treasury auction fails! - Is ours next?

The top news of the day is the fact that the UK treasury auction yesterday failed. Investors refused to buy at the artificially low rate of interest offered. This will eventually come upon us, as well. The article is well worth a read. Also note the comments on Geithner's Freudian Slip.

The economic government reports were very encouraging yesterday. All were well above forecasts. This is at least a bit suspect as last months were greatly reduced from the preliminary reports. Can it really be that these are massaged to the extent that they are useless. No, our government would never lie to the people. Perish the thought.


I am so thankful that everything and everybody are in the hands of the Creator God of all. Without this, we would dig ourselves into ever greater holes. Of course, all of our "challenges" may well be the result of His judgment upon our national apostasy. What a shame upon us. Nationally, we have turned from the God who had blessed us for so many decades. While we were to be the light to the world and salt to the earth, we have lost the light and our salt is without flavor. Thus, we deserve what we are getting.

Nothing short of national repentance will save our nation. Let us pray for national leaders who will call our nation to repentance. Perhaps, as in the case of Nineveh, the Lord would rebuild our land.

Silver is 13.58 up 0.07 today. I'm waiting to see what the boyz have in mind for both precious metals. It appears that there was some action with the NY open.
Gold, too, was hit at the NY opening. Gold is 937.80 up 4.00 now.
The big news is that the miners are holding quite strong with the metals up any at all. The miners seem to be pulling away from total dependence upon the price of the metals. Our trading stocks last trades are as follow: DROOY 9.24; HL 2.17; HMY 11.64, and VGZ 2.06. These are strong in view of the fact that the metals are not in the stratosphere, as they should be.

The following is a copy of a letter sent to me by my son. It is a practical lesson in Economics. I checked with Snopes and it is not reported there. Whether an actual letter sent to the president or not, it is a great lesson.

Mr. President:

I propose the Economics 101 question below, is this what you really want for America?

Economics Lesson 101:

An economics professor at Texas Tech said he had never failed a single student before but had, once, failed an entire class... The class insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer. The professor then said ok, we will have an experiment in this class on socialism.

All grades would be averaged and everyone would receive the same grade so no one would fail and no one would receive an A. After the first test the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy. But, as the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too; so they studied little.. The second Test average was a D! No one was happy. When the 3rd test rolled around the average was an F.

The scores never increased as bickering, blame, name calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for anyone else. All failed to their great surprise and the professor told them that socialism would ultimately fail, because the harder to succeed the greater the reward but when a government takes all the reward away; no one will try or succeed.

Sincerely,

J. Q. Delap

Would that we would learn this lesson. Without it, we will be morphed into communism and fascism. Is this what we really want for America? For your children and grandchildren? How far we have truly fallen from our founding fathers vision.

From The Telegraph:

City alarm as Treasury fails to sell Government gilts

Britain's ability to borrow tens of billions of pounds to fight the economic crisis has been called into question after the Treasury failed to sell Government gilts for the first time in more than a decade.

By Robert WInnett, Deputy Political Editor

Last Updated: 10:57AM GMT 26 Mar 2009

Fears are growing on the financial markets that Britain may not be able to repay the billions of pounds in debt it is amassing to rescue banks and revive the economy.

The Government admitted yesterday that, for the first time since 1995, investors had been unwilling to buy the full complement of its so-called gilt-edged bonds at one of its official auctions.

How soon will this happen here? That is the big question! This a harbinger of what is ahead for us. Then watch the value of the dollar go into the tank and drown. You can read the entire article HERE.

From Financial Times:

EU leader condemns US ‘road to hell’

By Tony Barber in Brussels and Edward Luce in Washington

Published: March 25 2009 20:00 | Last updated: March 26 2009 00:12

European Union hopes for a new era in relations with the US were thrown into chaos on Wednesday when the holder of the EU presidency condemned American remedies for the global recession as “the road to hell”.

Barely a week before Barack Obama is due to arrive in Europe on his first official visit as US president, Mirek Topolanek, the Czech Republic’s prime minister, put the 27-nation EU on a collision course with Washington.This is another thrust against what we have done to the dollar. The financial ministers meeting will have the topic of alternatives to the current reserve currency in place of the dollar. It is becoming more of them against us, and we deserve it as we are destroying the dollar. The article is worth a read HERE.

From MineWeb:

Gold is entering a new era, thanks to a major rehabilitation as a global financial asset--CPM

Gold appears to be enjoying a rehabilitation of its historical might and role as a financial asset, as investors look toward safe haven assets in these volatile times, says a new CPM gold report.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 26 Mar 2009

RENO, NV -

A report by the CPM precious metals and commodities research group in New York City asserts "gold is entering a new era," thanks to "a major rehabilitation of gold as a financial asset around the world" as investors look for safe havens in volatile times.

"Not since the Great Depression and World War II has sentiment about the state of financial and economic conditions been so pessimistic," CPM noted in its newly released Gold Yearbook 2009.

"The market consensus appears to be that the gold price will remain strong, at least through the first four months of 2009. All of the factors that have been driving investors to buy gold continue to be in place," CPM analysts said. Read it HERE.

This has been widely reported, and I selected the Daily Pfennig to give us a look at a U.S. goof: "Apparently Geithner was asked about China's call for a new international reserve currency yesterday at a NY event. He said that while he hadn't read the proposal, he understood it as a plan "designed to increase the use of the IMF's special drawing rights. And we're actually quite open to that." After hearing those words, currency traders immediately starting selling off the dollar. After all, if the Treasury Secretary of the US says the administration is open to a new international reserve currency, why do you want to hold dollars? I guess Geithner got wind of what he had done to the currency markets pretty quickly (the power of Blackberries!) and 15 minutes later he clarified his comments to say the US dollar should remain as the world's reserve currency."

His earlier goof sent the dollar reeling, but the later "clarification" gave the dollar some legs. The currency markets are very sensitive to rhetoric out of Washington. The IMF special drawing rights have been offered as a replacement for the dollar reserve status. This is a topic of discussion internationally.

Best to each, Doug

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

10th Amendment Action by States

Folks,

I have omitted the gold and silver graphs today, because tomorrow is the expiration day for gold futures, and I fully expect the boyz to be actively pushing the price down so the options expire worthless.


If I am correct in this assumption, it could be a big opportunity for us to add to our portfolios and trading stocks of miners. Gold is currently 926.30 on an up tick and silver is 13.44 even today. The trading miners are, as follows: DROOY 9.18; HL 2.06; HMY 11.43, and VGZ 2.06. I like DROOY well below 9; HL below 2; HMY below 10, and VGZ below 2. All may experience a dip tomorrow. We will have to watch closely and keep our powder dry to be able to jump in rapidly.

The following article by Walter E. Williams gives and update on the 10th Amendment resolutions by several states. This is a very important move, but other states must follow and stronger legislation is required as he says. I urge you to read the entire article. We must find a peaceful means of stopping the out of control federal government. The states must interpose themselves between the citizens of each state and the federal government or we are lost. A good government under God's Law protects the life, liberty, and property of citizens and private businesses. It does not intervene in the market place, nor does it seize ownership of businesses.

From TownHall:

Wednesday, March 25, 2009
States Rebellion Pending
by Walter E. Williams

Our Colonial ancestors petitioned and pleaded with King George III to get his boot off their necks. He ignored their pleas, and in 1776, they rightfully declared unilateral independence and went to war. Today it's the same story except Congress is the one usurping the rights of the people and the states, making King George's actions look mild in comparison. Our constitutional ignorance -- perhaps contempt, coupled with the fact that we've become a nation of wimps, sissies and supplicants -- has made us easy prey for Washington's tyrannical forces. But that might be changing a bit. There are rumblings of a long overdue re-emergence of Americans' characteristic spirit of rebellion.

Eight state legislatures have introduced resolutions declaring state sovereignty under the Ninth and 10th amendments to the U.S. Constitution; they include Arizona, Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Washington. There's speculation that they will be joined by Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, Maine and Pennsylvania. The entire article is a good and necessary read HERE.

From Bloomberg:

Japanese Young Boost Gold Buying Amid Recession, Retailer Says

By Yasumasa Song

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Young Japanese retail investors are turning to gold purchasing plans at an unprecedented rate as they seek to protect their finances amid a deepening recession, an official at the nation’s largest bullion retailer said. The article is HERE.

Even the Japanese young people are beginning to see the hand writing on the wall. FIAT currencies are the means for governments to control citizens and seize whatever wealth they have.

From MineWeb:

Beware base metals optimism - stick to gold and silver for wealth protection

Base metals may still be vulnerable as global industry remains well below its peaks so gold and perhaps silver probably remain the best bets for wealth preservation for the moment.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 25 Mar 2009

CAPE TOWN -

Base metals have been having a reasonably good run of late - copper in particular - where some heartening Chinese figures have led to a degree of market optimism that could yet prove to be a misjudgment by the investment community. While indeed base metals prices may have come back too far at their nadir, the fundamentals for sustained or increasing price levels do not look so good in the short term. Longer term, maybe, the impact of closures and new project delays will likely lead to shortages developing, but this may still be some way away. However be warned, the recent Chinese upswing may be an awful lot more fragile than it appears at first sight and while that country's domestic infrastructure building programme could make matters less bad than they might be without it, the virtual collapse of Western industrial demand for metals, with no real signs yet that this phase is over, does not bode well for short term price performance. Read it HERE. More support for the precious metals.

From MineWeb:

Which way will you make your play in gold? - Barry Allan

Consistently ranked as one of the top-10 gold and precious metals mining analysts in Canada, Research Capital's Senior Vice President and Director Barry Allan offers a well-rounded perspective on the mining sector that combines geological fieldwork, equity research and finance. Interview with The Gold Report.

Author: The Gold Report
Posted: Tuesday , 24 Mar 2009

VANCOUVER, BC, CANADA -

The Gold Report: Let's start with your economic overview. Where do you see things going?

Barry Allan: I characterize it as my 35,000-foot view. Generally speaking, right across the board we remain positive on the prospects for gold and silver. We look at silver as really a derivative of gold. If we're bullish on gold, as we are, we are also bullish on silver. Read it HERE.

From Investor Resource:

Gold stock index ratio analysis

By Lorimer Wilson
24 Mar 2009 at 09:29 PM GMT-04:00

Here's a review of the most popular gold mining company indices and how they can be used for determine the future movement of the precious metal.


Trading without indicators is like running blind and it encourages emotional trading that is the bane of successful investors. Below are brief descriptions of five of the most popular gold mining company indices and how they should be used in conjunction with the price of gold to determine the future movement of gold bullion and gold mining stocks. . . .

How Best to Apply the Gold:HUI, Gold:XAU, Gold:GDX, Gold:XGD and CDNX:XGD Ratios
The Gold/HUI, Gold/XAU, Gold/GDX and Gold/XGD Ratios divide the daily close of the price of gold by the daily close of the price of the particular index and when charted over time provide an excellent running representation of relative strength and weakness between the two variables. This is a very interesting read providing a lot of good insight. Read it HERE. I plan to study this in detail.

From Monday Morning:

The Three Ways China May Deal With Growing U.S. Debt

By William Patalon III
And Jason Simpkins
Money Morning Editors

Although there’s a veritable laundry list of obstacles that could blunt the U.S. government’s ongoing economic turnaround efforts, its single-biggest challenge may come from its single-biggest creditor - China. China presents the U. S. with a real financial threat that cannot be ignored. Read it HERE.

From Financial Times:

Goldman working on iShares bid

By Martin Arnold and Jane Croft in London and Henny Sender in New York

Published: March 23 2009 20:18 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:00

Goldman Sachs is working on a bid for iShares, the fast-growing asset management business that is being auctioned by Barclays.

Bids for the business, which are due by the end of next week, could put a valuation as high as $6.5bn (£4.5bn) on the manager of exchange traded funds – the listed investment vehicles that track a market benchmark, an asset or a basket of shares, according to one person close to the process. This is bad news for SLV, since it would give managership of SLV to one of the biggest of the boyz in the intervention business. Read it HERE.

From The Daily Pfennig: "Just yesterday I read an article in the New York Times regarding the Saab Automobile company. GM, who owns a majority share of Saab has asked the Swedish government to help keep Saab afloat. But Sweden's answer, "The Swedish state is not prepared to own car factories." Basically Sweden has told GM tough luck, let the chips fall where they will. If Saab has something that someone wants, a buyer will emerge. If not, then Saab will shut down and another, better run, more efficient firm will fill its place." At least the Swedish government has some intelligence which gave it the courage to say NO to business ownership. America is moving to ownership of financial institutions and automobile industries. What is next in this grab for greater central control of citizens a and business. We need to let failed businesses go bankrupt and be replaced by more efficient businesses. The alternation is fascist government.

Keep your focus on King Jesus and His Kingdom. He cares greatly for His people.

Best, Doug










Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Have we defrauded the world by trashing the dollar?

The reserve status of the U. S. Dollar is threatened as never before. The world knows that it is unbacked and is rapidly losing purchasing power. As I discuss, below, we have defrauded the world according to the Law of God. We will reap the "rewards" of our action as the books are balanced. That day may be approaching rapidly.



Both gold and silver are taking the hit. Gold is 921.90 on a down tick and silver is 13.39 on a down tick. The DOW is off 100 to about 7676. Our trading stocks are, as follows: DROOY 8.89; HMY 11.48; HL 1.90, and VGZ 1.88. All are, in my opinion, reasonable buying ranges. If you chose to buy, buy in smaller increments that you might normally. The stocks seem to be headed lower for a time. You must make your own decisions based upon your risk tolerance and your present portfolio. The future delivery for gold this week should be a rather large one, so the vested interests will likely intervene to swing the prices lower as the have in the past. Thus, we are likely to see lower prices this week. Of course, I do not know the future. Only our Sovereign God knows that for sure, because He moves every thing and every body according to His will.


From MineWeb:

Mining stocks hit best levels in six months

A ranking of the world's biggest diggers shows how names in gold, silver and copper easily top miners of diamonds, coal and potash.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Monday , 23 Mar 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Mining stocks were more heavily sold down than most equity subsectors, but have in the past few days moved decisively to the best levels seen in six months. Where the dollar-based MSCI Barra Index for all global equities has bounced by 15% from its lows in the past few months, the world's top 100 mining stocks have moved up by 88%, measured on an average value-weighted basis.

These mining stocks have, as such, gained $400bn in market value since rising from trough levels, but, even so, still show a net loss of $1.5trn from high points seen during 2008, typically during May. The world's top 100 miners currently carry an aggregate value of $939bn. Read it HERE.

We have most certainly been privileged to see this in our mining stocks here. It is interesting in spite of the fact that the precious metals have not sprinted forward as much as would be expected given the financial turmoil and the military adventures around the world.
The questions that most of us should be asking are (1) "Will the U.S. Dollar lose its exclusive world reserve status?", and (2) "When will the dollar lose its exclusive world reserve status?" If this occurs, the dollar will lose purchasing power and we will have hyperinflation in spades. Then we will reap all the "rewards" for having debased the world currency when the privilege was granted to us after WWII. We have squandered this blessing and gone into debt at a level never before seen in the history of the world. From Proverbs, "The wicked borroweth and payeth not again." The United States will never pay its debt with anything of value. The best we could do is pay by printing dollars and computer blips. Think about this way of repayment. We borrowed for decades using dollars of higher purchasing power than the dollars with which we would repay the debt. I would declare that this is a form of fraud. It is a violation of God's Law against the use of unequal weights in financial transactions. Thus, we are defrauding the world which loaned to us in the first place and from whom we bought many things. We used our world currency reserve status to exchange depreciating dollars for all that we bought. Now we are going to renege on our debt or pay it off with dollars of less value than the ones we borrowed. The immediately following articles reflect the sentiments of many recently published which show that the world around us is worried about the value of the dollar. This is particularly true in view of the significant bail outs of the past and the current extreme bail out on the way. These actions will trash the dollar and even give more concern to the world around us.

From The Daily Pfennig: "China's central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was in the news again yesterday. He suggested the IMF should look to create a 'super sovereign reserve currency' that is not connected to any individual nation. Sounds like China is continuing to look for alternatives for their $1.95 trillion of reserves. They will present their proposals to reform the IMF at next month's Gorup of 20 meeting. While a super sovereign reserve currency is probably a ways away, it is obvious that China is wanting to find alternatives to their huge investments in the US$. Not a good sign for the green/peachback."

From Reuters:

Falling greenback fuels BRIC dollar reserve rethink


Mon Mar 23, 2009

By Sebastian Tong and Peter Apps - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - A push by the world's leading emerging economies to dislodge the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency appears to be gaining momentum even as a weakening greenback adds further urgency to the discussion.

China on Monday added its voice to a growing international chorus seeking the replacement of the dollar as the main reserve currency, urging for an overhaul of the global monetary system to allow for wider use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) allocated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Read it HERE.

From Market Watch:

Bugs triumphant about gold, terrified about U.S.

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:03 a.m. EDT March 23, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Last Wednesday's Federal Reserve debt monetization announcement was the event gold bugs have been anticipating all their professional lives, or at least since the last gold bull market blow-off 30 years ago. They are triumphant -- and terrified.

Australia's The Privateer said on Sunday: "On March 18 ... U.S. Fed announced plans to begin to buy U.S. government debt paper with Federal Reserve Notes (a.k.a. U.S. Dollars) created out of thin air. ... On our Web site, we announced that decision as the 'END GAME.' That is precisely what it is." The website is HERE. You can read the entire article from Market Watch HERE.

From
Time On Line:
Why the Norwegian Krone is the World's Safest Currency
By Adam Smith / London The main reason: Norway's budget and current-account surpluses are the biggest among nations with the 10 most traded currencies. Factor in the country's $350 billion sovereign wealth fund pumped full of the country's oil revenues, and the cost of insuring against government default in Norway — a key measure of a currency's safety — is the lowest of those countries. Read it HERE.

I am out of foreign currencies for the time being; however the Krone looks very interesting at present. As Richard Russell says "Gold and Dollars."

Best to each, Doug




Monday, March 23, 2009

Challenges Ahead - We Need National Repentance

Folks, We are facing troubling times. Congress has just passed a mandatory voluntary youth training program. This was done by the NAZIs of WWII and other fascist regimes throughout history. This will be nothing but a gross extention of the national government school system which is designed to produce socialist slaves.

Our challenges go well beyond financial. Since we have gone against the God who had blessed our nation for many decades, we are under His judgment. He disciplines those He loves to bring them to repentance and get them to return to Him.

We must urgently prepare our children to know the truth which is only found in Scripture under the guidance of the Holy Spirit. If we do not bring our children up in the nurture and admonition the Lord, they will be lost to the state.

We either follow God's Law or we have chaos. There is no other choice. I pray that we, as a nation, will repent and return to the God who guided our founders before it is too late. God will always preserve a remnant. Be sure that you are within His remnant.


While the precious metals seem to be going nowhere slowly, the mining stocks are holding on to recent gains. Here are a few prices: DROOY 9.30; HMY 12.12; HL 2.14, and VGZ 2.19. These prices are beyond my previously defined buying ranges. However, we may have to revise the buying ranges higher if the miners hang in here, as they seem to be doing. The DOW is already up some 280+. That is quite a sprint! Will it last? That is the question! Is this a change in the bear trend or just a bear rally? We will see in the next few days.
Gold is trading at a lower level. Currently, gold is 951.60.
Silver is 13.85. This is a strong showing! Silver is out performing gold.

From Heritage.org:

March 16, 2009
The Obama Budget: Spending, Taxes, and Doubling the National Debt
by Brian M. Riedl

During his presidential campaign, President Barack Obama promised the American people a "net spending cut."1 Instead, he signed a "stimulus" bill that spends $800 billion, and he has proposed a budget that would:

  • Increase spending by $1 trillion over the next decade;
  • Include an additional $250 billion placeholder for another financial bailout;
  • Likely lead to a 12 percent increase in discretion­ary spending; Read the rest of the list HERE.
It seems that Obama is continuing the spending at even a higher level than King George. I warned that neither Twiddle Dumb nor Twiddle Dee would matter. All politicians are cut form the same cloth. Folks, we must not vote for the platforms of the parties. We must look to the action of the politicians. Few, if any, follow the platform. Almost without exception, each looks forward to the next election and throws any promises out of the way. We need statesmen who stand solidly behind biblical convictions and understand that the Sovereign God of all is who put them in office and expects them to follow His laws, not what they think is practical.

From The Hindu Business Line:

Gold to consolidate, test resistance

Gold futures, ended lower, on profit-taking after its rally to a three-week high earlier. Gold has risen sharply since the Federal Reserve announced that it would buy $300 billion in longer-dated Treasuries on Wednesday, as fears over dollar weakness and rising inflation boosted prices. Demand from ETFs is helping to compensate for the excess supply in the market left over from a drop-off in jewellery buying.

Physical buying for jewellery in key markets such as India and West Asia has been the hardest hit due to the sharp price rise.

Comex April gold futures rose higher in line with our expectations. Though the $889 support we had cautioned was tested, prices did not close below that level. Rallies to $965 could resist upside attempts in the coming week. Read it HERE.

From Bloomberg:

Gold, Silver Fall as Equity Rally Curbs Demand for Alternatives

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for a second straight session as equities rallied in Asia and Europe, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. Silver also declined.

The MSCI World Index rose for a ninth session in the past 10 and stock-index futures surged in New York as investors speculated that the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur growth. Before today, gold rose 8.1 percent this year while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 15 percent.

“The gold market is moving simply as a measure of fear,” said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “As the stock market moves higher, some of the fear factor comes out of gold.” Read it HERE.

Both precious metals rallied a good deal last week and corrections are to be expected. However, the bull trend is still in control.

From Reuters:

The Nano, world's cheapest car, to hit Indian roads Mon Mar 23, 2009

By Janaki Krishnan

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Nano, the world's cheapest car, will hit Indian roads in July, four months after its formal launch on Monday, and demand is expected to far outstrip supply as the price tag of around $2,000 draws legions of new buyers.

Hundreds of thousands are set to queue up to book, including motorbike owners and people who have been using public transport. Read it HERE.

WOW! $2,000! It would be OK until you got it on one of our interstate highways. I would not want to be in the smallest vehicle there.

Let us join together in repentant prayer before our Sovereign God, humble ourselves before Him, seek His forgiveness, and turn back to Him in obedience.

Best to each, Doug